Bet On the Future

Make money with what you know, or use Ooms, our play money, to build your skills and reputation as a forecaster.

Free to start with play money — no deposit needed.

44k+
Events forecasted
25k+
Forecasters
2017
Founded
01 · Our mission

Our goal with Futuur is to inform better decision-making by providing more accurate forecasts across the greatest breadth and depth of topics from the macro to the micro, the global to the local, the long term to the imminent.

TB
Tom Bennett
Founder & CEO · Hello, Futuur
How it works

Three steps from question to payout.

Anyone can propose a market. Every market ships with a binding resolution source. Prices move when forecasters trade. When the event happens, correct shares pay $. Wrong shares pay zero.

Scroll through steps
01/ 03
01Ask

Every market begins as a question with a real answer.

Markets on Futuur are written as binary, multi-choice with resolution criteria published before trading opens. The crowd answers what the question actually asked, against a source that's named up front.

Will the EU pass an AI liability act in 2026?
  • Resolves31 Dec 2026
  • Sourceeur-lex.europa.eu
  • FormatBinary · Yes / No
  • Proposed by@lina
Yes 38%No 62%
Figurative example only
02/ 03
02Trade

Buy shares in the outcome you believe.

Futuur runs every market through an automated market maker, so you can buy or sell a position instantly. The lower the share price, the bigger the payout if you turn out right. Trade with Ooms (ø) or with real money in USDC.

Order ticket · USDC market
EU AI liability act in 2026?
SideBuy · Yes
Size100 shares
Avg price0.38 USDC
Cost38.20 USDC
If correct+ 61.80 USDC
0.38 now
Figurative example only
03/ 03
03Settle

Get paid when you’re right.

When the event lands, the market settles against the source declared at launch. Winning shares redeem at 1.00 in the market's currency — USDC or Ooms. Losing shares go to zero. Payouts hit your wallet automatically.

Market resolved · 31 Dec 2026
EU AI liability act in 2026?
OutcomeYes ✓
Shares held100 × Yes
Settlement1.00 USDC / share
Payout100.00 USDC
Profit+ 61.80 USDC
Figurative example only

Under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.

James Surowiecki · The Wisdom of Crowds (2004)
Nerd stats

How accurate is Futuur?

Calibration · peer-reviewed

Money talks.
Forecasts listen.

The largest within-platform study to date — 19,094 markets · 316,239 transactions · Jan 2020 to Apr 2024. Real money makes the crowd measurably sharper (lower Brier = better).

Real money0.1573Brier score · lower is better
  • 9,547 markets
  • 3.2 users · 3.0 txns each
  • $100 volume → Brier < 0.04
6.33%more accuratep = 3.4 × 10⁻⁶
Play money0.1672Brier score · same period
  • 9,547 markets
  • 14.6 users · 1.6 txns each
  • Plateaus at Brier ≈ 0.04
Avg. Brier score by category · real money outperforms in every domainReal moneyPlay money
0.200.150.100.050Business & FinanceEntertainmentPoliticsScienceSports
Politics50% more accurate than the average of other categories (RM markets).
Sample size9,547 matched markets per condition · same questions, same timeframe.
Significancep = 3.4 × 10⁻⁶ · the gap is not noise.
The Futuur team

We're a small, senior team eager to innovate and build things people actually use. Remote-friendly. Plenty of room for impact. If that sounds like a fit, we'd love to talk.