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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 1%, play money 9% No: real money 99%, play money 91% Volume: real money 1585.53526888, play money 239086.56612449 Bettors: real money 35, play money 510 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 1047.91136922, play 52094.47926275 Bettors: real 63, play 55 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Keir Starmer out as UK’s prime minister by ...? (ID: 233775) Volume: real 3360.74897912, play 186160.27007865 Bettors: real 32, play 25 Leading (real money): December 31 98% Leading (play money): December 31 98% Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 350.97978985, play 32608.41721536 Bettors: real 7, play 22 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 9% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 13% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 180.0549996, play 31835.0497278 Bettors: real 3, play 27 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 2914.1522151, play 19357.41580891 Bettors: real 34, play 33 Leading (real money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 48% Leading (play money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 31%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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