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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 13%, play money 8% No: real money 87%, play money 92% Volume: real money 1163.81053469, play money 231434.97862456 Bettors: real money 33, play money 502 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 345.42534656, play 32035.5703135 Bettors: real 6, play 20 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 10% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 14% Trump to lift Hormuz blockade by ...? (ID: 238413) Volume: real 1813.81207302, play 44651.75899036 Bettors: real 19, play 19 Leading (real money): June 30 62% Leading (play money): June 30 67% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 180.0649996, play 31619.99829582 Bettors: real 3, play 25 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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