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Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026? Yes: real money 27%, play money 25% No: real money 73%, play money 75% Volume: real money 200.12035232, play money 20500.0004 Bettors: real money 4, play money 1 Categories: Politics, USA, Supreme Court Related markets Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 925.24553164, play 127895.40979507 Bettors: real 65, play 85 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1268.06728697, play 40478.30831664 Bettors: real 16, play 51 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 25% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 44% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.78775908, play 114986.66327483 Bettors: real 39, play 211 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 74% Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2044.86415693, play 36521.10714014 Bettors: real 22, play 83 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 36% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.5194239, play 137081.00274465 Bettors: real 30, play 209 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 11% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57%

Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether the membership (composition) of the Supreme Court of the United States will change at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a “change in composition” means that at least one Justice leaves the Court (e.g., resignation, retirement, death) and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in to fill a seat. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements and records from the Supreme Court of the United States regarding its membership (e.g., official website communications) and the official record of any swearing-in.

If at least one Justice leaves the Court and/or at least one new Justice is sworn in during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary changes due to recusals or other temporary absences will not count. If official Court information is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive membership change, not minor technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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