Markets
Leaderboard
Will any country leave NATO in 2026? Yes: real money 22%, play money 13% No: real money 78%, play money 87% Volume: real money 210.23474414, play money 23110.0986 Bettors: real money 7, play money 7 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Multilateral Organizations Related markets US to announce withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2026? (ID: 231565) Volume: real 380.34641191, play 23084.70994951 Bettors: real 8, play 10 Leading (real money): US to announce withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): US to announce withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2026? 19% Will NATO admit Argentina as a global partner in 2026? (ID: 231593) Volume: real 279.46095197, play 21980.34345755 Bettors: real 7, play 11 Leading (real money): Will NATO admit Argentina as a global partner in 2026? 21% Leading (play money): Will NATO admit Argentina as a global partner in 2026? 30% Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? (ID: 166867) Volume: real 660.70111399, play 19996.97653673 Bettors: real 9, play 34 Leading (real money): Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? 5%

Will any country leave NATO in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether any member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will formally withdraw from the alliance at any time during calendar year 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official withdrawal notifications or statements issued by NATO or by a member state formally invoking withdrawal procedures.

If any NATO member formally announces and completes its withdrawal from NATO during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Political statements expressing dissatisfaction, threats to withdraw, or partial non-compliance without formal withdrawal will not count. If official communications are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing NATO or the withdrawing state. Resolution will reflect a formal, legally recognized withdrawal, not rhetoric. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

Related Markets