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What will be president Lula's prison situation at the end of 2020? Free: real money —, play money 95% Parole: real money —, play money 4% Imprisoned: real money —, play money 1% Volume: real money 1040, play money 11045.40424214 Bettors: real money 0, play money 51 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2033.0296517, play 299498.80666806 Bettors: real 45, play 553 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 3% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 2% Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? (ID: 161038) Volume: real 128.73949158, play 166835.26694265 Bettors: real 22, play 267 Leading (real money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 2%

What will be president Lula's prison situation at the end of 2020?

Market Rules

Despite being sentenced to jail in two lawsuits, and having already served nearly two years of his sentence, Brazil's former president Lula was allowed to leave prison in November of 2019, while he waits for higher courts to judge his appeals. There are still more lawsuits pending against him, and those for which he was already found guilty are subject to serious questioning in Brazil's Supreme Court, with the possibility of being annulled.

In such an uncertain and changing environment, what will be Lula's prison situation on December 31, 2020?

If any judge orders the transfer of Lula back to prison, and that is still his legal condition on December 31st 2020, at 11:59pm GMT, this market will be resolved as "imprisoned".

If any judge orders the Lula to return to serving his prison sentence, but allows him to do so the so-called semi-open regime - where he is allowed to leave prison (be it at his home or at any federal prison) by day to work, but still has to return at night - this market will be resolved as "Parole".

If Lula is allowed to remain free - be it because he was allowed to remain free while his appeals to high courts are still pending, because the sentence that put him in jail was annulled, or because his sentence was changed from serving time in prison to any alternative method of punishment for his alleged crimes - this market will be resolved as “Free”.

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