If summoned by Bolsonaro to prevent the execution of an order from Brazil's Supreme Court in 2022, will the Army comply with the request?
Market Rules
In his speech on Brazil's Independence Day, on September 7, 2021, President Jair Bolsonaro guaranteed that from that moment forwards he would no longer obey any orders from Brazil's Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes.
If, by the end of 2022, President Jair Bolsonaro decides not to comply with any order from Brazil's Supreme Court, then summons the Army to guarantee such non-compliance, and the Army does obey that request from the President, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the Army is called by the President but does not respond to Bolsonaro's request, the market will be resolved as "No".
If Bolsonaro does not summon the Army in such a situation, or if he chooses not to disobey any order from the Supreme Court by the referred deadline, this market will be canceled and all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.
Futuur will only take into account official positions coming from the competent authorities. Spontaneous demonstrations of support by low-ranking officers or soldiers, for example, will not be taken into account for resolving this market.