If Russia and Ukraine sign a peace treaty in 2022, will Russia still control Ukrainian access to the Sea of Azov at the time of the signature?

The Russian military operation in Ukraine started in February 2022 and has since developed on multiple fronts. On top of Eastern Ukraine, Russian armed forces have also marked positions in Crimea, in the South, and have been active through the Southeastern territory in cities like Mariupol.

The resolution of this market as “Yes” will depend on the fulfillment of two basic conditions:

1. Russia and Ukraine must officially and publicly sign a peace agreement by December 31, 2022.
2. At the moment immediately prior to the signature, Russia must control the entirety of the territory that used to make up Ukraine’s direct access to the Sea of Azov when the conflict began.

To assess this information, the Ukraine conflict updates published by the Institute for the Study of War will be used as a reference.

This market may also be resolved as “Yes” if, by December 31, 2022, Russia and Ukraine formally and consensually recognize (“de jure”) that the referred territory belongs to Russia. In that case, this market will be resolved as soon as the agreement becomes public.

If neither a peace agreement is signed by the end of 2022, nor the two countries mutually recognize Russia's control over the region before that, this market will be canceled and all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.