When will the United Kingdom enter an economic recession?

The Bank of England has projected weak and even negative National economic growth scenarios in the near future, possibly still in 2022. Other observers, however, diverge on when the recession might set in, as well as on its intensity, including the possibility of stagflation.

In case the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product goes through two consecutive quarters of contraction (negative growth rates), the country will enter a technical recession. If that happens, the alternative which correctly lists the period in which the recession is first confirmed in the UK will be considered the winning outcome of this market.

The reference to resolve this market will be the Office for National Statistics’ “Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter Growth” publication.

If the United Kingdom does not enter recession by the 4th quarter of 2023, the winning outcome of this market will be "Not before 2024".