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A geração de emprego (payroll) não-agrícola nos EUA será maior em novembro do que em outubro? Não: real money 75%, play money 76% Sim: real money 25%, play money 24% Volume: real money 219.770439, play money 7852 Bettors: real money 1, play money 2 Categories: Finanças, Indicadores da Economia, Estados Unidos, Emprego Related markets Desempenho do MSCI Emerging Markets Index em 2026 (ID: 231734) Volume: real 410.86941759, play 100.399 Bettors: real 23, play 9 Leading (real money): Acima de 20% 67% Leading (play money): Entre 10% e 20% 39% Desempenho do MSCI World Index em 2026 (ID: 231735) Volume: real 341.02146297, play 8171.11639698 Bettors: real 22, play 12 Leading (real money): Acima de 10% 65% Leading (play money): Entre 5% e 10% 35% O rating soberano de crédito dos EUA será rebaixado novamente pela Fitch, Moody’s ou S&P até o fim de 2026? (ID: 224525) Volume: real 86.96456248, play 4773.37048688 Bettors: real 9, play 8 Leading (real money): O rating soberano de crédito dos EUA será rebaixado novamente pela Fitch, Moody’s ou S&P até o fim d 15% Leading (play money): O rating soberano de crédito dos EUA será rebaixado novamente pela Fitch, Moody’s ou S&P até o fim d 31%

A geração de emprego (payroll) não-agrícola nos EUA será maior em novembro do que em outubro?

Regras do Mercado

Os números de geração de emprego não-agrícola nos Estados Unidos são divulgados pelo Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) como parte do relatório Employment Situation, e são considerados por muitos como o dado mais importante da publicação. Novos relatórios costumam ser publicados toda primeira sexta feira do mês - baseados em dados que cobrem até meados do mês anterior -, e eventualmente podem conter revisões dos dados de meses anteriores.

Em seu relatório mais recente, o BLS indicou que haviam sido geradas 261.000 vagas deste tipo na economia americana em outubro.

Se o próximo relatório de Employment Situation do BLS declarar que a geração líquida de emprego (payroll) não-agrícola em novembro for ainda maior do que em outubro, este mercado será resolvido como "Sim".

Fonte: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm.

Comentários

  • deagol: FutuurBot The correct answer to the title question “will jobs grow more in November than in October” is ‘No’ (263k in Nov vs. 284k in Oct revision). Same question is also in bold text in the description for the criteria to resolve the market. However, I see this was resolved by sticking to the initial report of 261k for October mentioned in the description, despite its revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and despite the description even clarifying that monthly reports “may include revisions of the data from the previous months.” I can’t see why a notice about potential revisions was included in the market description if such revisions would not be taken into account, in contradiction to the title and the resolution criteria in bold text . The title should align with the description to avoid any ambiguity or confusion. cc @Futuur @lucaslocher7 @tom
  • Futuur: Hello, deagol . Future revisions of previously released indicators do not affect the resolution of our markets. That is why we explicitly mention the figure from the previous month, so that forecasters can safely make a prediction based on known number. If instead we had made the rules as you suggested, the market would become a double prediction, as one would have not only to predict the nonfarm payroll employment for November, but also whether or not (and in which direction and magnitude) the BLS would revise their data from October. When we explicitly mention the figures from the previous month, we do so to provide reference and secutiry for forecasters to focus on what matters: predicting the perfomance of the indicator on the following month and being able to bet on the direction in comparison to what is currently known by the general publc. 🙂
  • deagol: Futuur Thanks. I think it would be clearer if the title as well as the bolded text emphasizing the resolution criteria included the figure, and where you mention there might be revisions, that these will not be taken into account for the resolution.
  • Futuur: Thank you for the feedback, deagol . We will try to take that into account (at least the part that has to do with bolding the figure as well) in our next markets. More clarity is always welcomed 🙂

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