Will Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2023?
Market Rules
The Russian military operation in Ukraine started in February 2022 and has since developed on multiple fronts. On top of Eastern Ukraine, Russian armed forces have also marked positions in Crimea, in the South, and have been active through the Southeastern territory in cities like Mariupol.
If on December 31st, 2023, Russia controls the entirety of the territory that used to make up Ukraine’s direct access to both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea when the conflict began, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market may also be resolved as “Yes” if, by December 31, 2023, Russia and Ukraine formally and consensually recognize (“de jure”) that the referred territory belongs to Russia. In that case, this market will be resolved as soon as the agreement becomes public.
To assess this information, the Ukraine conflict updates published by the Institute for the Study of War will be used as a reference.