Breach in the ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2024?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict if the ceasefire established by Armenia and Azerbaijan in September of 2023 for the land conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh will be breached between January 1st and December 31, 2024. If, during that period, military combat starts between these two countries, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles and the deployment of troops or land armored vehicles inside the territory of Armenia or Azerbaijan. The deployment of airships and warships will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.