Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether, on or before 23:59 (UTC) on December 31, 2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran will be publicly confirmed to have produced a finished nuclear military artifact — that is, a weaponized nuclear explosive device or warhead ready for potential deployment.
The market resolves to “Yes” once any of the following occurs within the period:
- an official announcement by the Government of Iran declaring completion of a nuclear weapon;
- an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that states unequivocally that Iran has assembled a usable nuclear explosive device;
- or a formal statement or resolution of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that beyond doubt affirms Iran’s fabrication of a functional nuclear bomb.
Announcements by Iranian authorities, IAEA reports, and UNSC statements that expose beyond doubt Iran’s development of a finished nuclear military artifact are the primary resolution sources for this market. Isolated intelligence leaks, unofficial briefings, or speculative media coverage—without confirmation from one of the primary sources—are insufficient to resolve this market to “Yes.” If no qualifying confirmation is issued by the deadline, the market resolves to “No”.
Subsequent diplomatic negotiations, partial disclosures, or contested claims after December 31, 2025, do not alter the resolution; only the first authoritative confirmation made before the cutoff determines the outcome.