Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026?

This market concerns whether Xi Jinping will leave office at any time during the calendar year 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) for resolution is an official announcement by the Xinhua News Agency confirming that Xi Jinping no longer holds any of the following roles: General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), President of the People’s Republic of China, or Chairman of the Central Military Commission. The Market Period is from 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC through 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC inclusive. If the PDS confirms that during this period he ceases to hold any of these roles (due to resignation, removal, death, incapacity with a successor appointed, or other official transfer of power), this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately (first-truth resolution). If by the end of the Market Period the PDS indicates he still holds all three roles and no effective cessation occurred within the period, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary acting arrangements, medical leaves, delegations of authority, or announcements of future resignation effective after 2026 do not count.

If the PDS is unavailable, significantly delayed (e.g., more than 72 hours after a widely reported change), or ambiguous, Futuur will apply a Secondary Confirmation Mechanism based on clear, overwhelming consensus from at least three (3) major, editorially independent news organizations (such as AP, Reuters, BBC). Resolution will focus on the substantive outcome and market intent, not minor technicalities of source presentation. Futuur aims to resolve within 24 hours of definitive confirmation. If a fair determination remains impossible after exhausting these mechanisms, the market may be cancelled.