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Will Amazon rainforest deforestation be lower in 2026 compared to 2025? Yes: real money 71%, play money 74% No: real money 29%, play money 26% Volume: real money 100.989, play money 12300.01636097 Bettors: real money 1, play money 7 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Environment Related markets Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 5753.43938187, play 932132.89794923 Bettors: real 94, play 1854 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 50% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 94% Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1069.69527532, play 444537.5891163 Bettors: real 39, play 1216 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 50% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 25%

Will Amazon rainforest deforestation be lower in 2026 compared to 2025?

Market Rules

This market predicts whether the annual deforested area of the Amazon rainforest will be smaller in 2026 compared to 2025, based on Brazil's PRODES (Program for Calculating Deforestation in the Amazon) monitoring system, which is maintained by INPE (Brazil's National Institute for Space Research). The comparison will be made using PRODES initial estimate data for both years.

The comparison must be made using the same measurement methodology and geographic scope (Legal Amazon).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the PRODES initial estimate for Amazon deforestation in 2026 (covering August 2025 to July 2026) is lower than the PRODES initial estimate for 2025 deforestation (covering August 2024 to July 2025). The estimate for 2025 was 5.796 square kilometers of deforested area.

This market will be resolved based on PRODES initial estimates released in the second half of 2025, and will NOT be revised when final consolidated data is published in 2027.

This market will be resolved based solely on official PRODES data published by INPE and will not consider alternative deforestation monitoring systems or independent estimates.

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