Will Eduardo Bolsonaro return to Brazil by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will physically return to Brazilian territory at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be verifiable confirmation of his presence in Brazil from authoritative public records or official statements by Brazilian authorities (e.g., Federal Police, Ministry of Justice), or other official documentation evidencing his presence in Brazil.
If Eduardo Bolsonaro is confirmed to have physically returned to Brazil within this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Confirmation may come from at least one of: (i) an official announcement by Brazilian authorities, (ii) confirmed reporting by multiple credible news outlets, (iii) a public appearance or statement by Eduardo Bolsonaro from within Brazil, or (iv) court records or legal proceedings documenting his presence in Brazil. The Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will apply if official records are unavailable or ambiguous, relying on consistent reporting from major independent news organizations. Resolution will be based on the substantive fact of his return to Brazilian territory, not on technicalities such as brief transit stops/layovers without a meaningful return. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.