Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be arrested in 2026?

This event predicts whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold him in custody (in Brazil or any other country). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements, court records, or custody documentation).

If Eduardo Bolsonaro is arrested (as defined above) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Detentions during routine questioning at a border/airport, or other temporary holds that do not escalate into an arrest, will not qualify. The Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will apply if official documentation is delayed or unclear, relying on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect whether an arrest occurred, regardless of what happens after (e.g., bail, release, extradition proceedings), and will not hinge on minor procedural technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.