Ukraine to concede formal autonomy to the Donbas region in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Ukraine will formally grant constitutional or legal autonomy to the Donbas region at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian constitutional amendments or laws establishing autonomy for the Donbas region.
If Ukraine formally enacts constitutional or legal measures granting autonomy to the Donbas region during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If autonomy is granted only to part of the Donbas region, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective autonomy. If official legal texts are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Ukrainian or international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive legal autonomy, not negotiations or proposals. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.