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Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day? Yes: real money 9%, play money 9% No: real money 91%, play money 91% Volume: real money 218.14364018, play money 10450.493051 Bettors: real money 5, play money 8 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 965.16141894, play 506767.83691805 Bettors: real 43, play 1222 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 50% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6779.44719473, play 1075551.39537932 Bettors: real 103, play 1882 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 97% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 96% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2022.98957167, play 285084.99022155 Bettors: real 45, play 552 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 3% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 9%

Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day?

Market Rules

If President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially submits a new presidential nomination message (mensagem presidencial) to the Brazilian Federal Senate, naming a person other than Jorge Rodrigo Araújo Messias (whose nomination was rejected by the Senate plenary on April 29, 2026, by a vote of 42 to 34), to fill the vacancy left on the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF) by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's early retirement, at any time before 11:00:00 UTC on October 4, 2026 (08:00 BRT, the opening of polls in the first round of Brazil's 2026 general elections), this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only the formal submission of a presidential nomination message to the Senate counts; public statements, leaks, or informal indications of a name do not trigger a “Yes” resolution, and a re-nomination of Jorge Messias does not count for this market’s purposes. If multiple new nominees are submitted, the first one to be officially submitted resolves “Yes”. If President Lula leaves office before submitting a new nomination, this market resolves "No".

The Primary Designated Source is the official publication of the nomination message in the Federal Senate's records (senado.leg.br) and the Federal Official Gazette (Diário Oficial da União).

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