Will the next Speaker of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies be from the PL?
Regras do Mercado
SUMMARY
This market covers only the election for President of the Chamber of Deputies at the start of the 58th Legislature, scheduled for February 1, 2027. It resolves "Yes" if the winner is affiliated with the PL at the time of the election, per the Chamber of Deputies's official record.
FULL DETAILS
If the deputy elected President of the Chamber of Deputies in the election held at the preparatory meeting at the start of the 58th Legislature, scheduled for February 1, 2027, is affiliated with the Partido Liberal (PL) at the time of that election, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only this election counts; elections for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies held at any other time, including any election to fill a vacancy before February 2027 and the election for the second two-year term of the 58th Legislature, are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is the Chamber of Deputies's official record of the election (camara.leg.br / Agência Câmara), with party affiliation as shown on the elected deputy's official profile on camara.leg.br.
Party affiliation is assessed at the moment the result is proclaimed; later changes of party do not affect resolution. If the PL merges with or is incorporated into another party before the election, affiliation with the resulting party counts as affiliation with the PL; affiliation with another party that is in a federation or bloc with the PL does not count. If the election is postponed, the market resolves on the first election held for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies for the first two-year term of the 58th Legislature. The first official proclamation governs; later annulments or court decisions do not affect resolution. The result may be confirmed by consistent reporting from at least two of Agência Brasil, Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and O Estado de S. Paulo.