Will Amazon rainforest deforestation be lower in 2027 compared to 2026?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves on whether INPE's PRODES initial estimate of Legal Amazon deforestation for August 2026 to July 2027 is lower than the initial estimate for August 2025 to July 2026. Both figures are annual totals from Brazil's official PRODES monitoring system, and the 2027 estimate is expected in the second half of 2027.
FULL DETAILS
If INPE's PRODES initial estimate of the annual deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon for PRODES year 2027 (August 1, 2026 to July 31, 2027) is lower than PRODES's initial estimate for PRODES year 2026 (August 1, 2025 to July 31, 2026), this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Both are cumulative annual figures, so deforestation within the 2027 reference period counts even if it occurred before this market was published; figures for any other PRODES year, and consolidated or revised figures, are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is the PRODES Amazônia annual deforestation rate (initial estimate, in km²) published by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), e.g. on terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br.
The 2026 baseline is the PRODES 2026 initial estimate as first published by INPE (expected in late 2026); later consolidation or revision of either year's figure does not affect resolution. If the two figures are equal at the precision INPE publishes, the market resolves "No". Only official PRODES data published by INPE for the Legal Amazon is used; DETER alerts and independent monitoring systems are not considered. If INPE changes the methodology or geographic scope, the year-over-year comparison INPE itself reports for the 2027 estimate governs. Resolution reflects the substantive intent: whether Amazon deforestation fell from one PRODES year to the next.