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Will Lula's next nominee to Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) be a woman? Yes: real money 10%, play money 10% No: real money 90%, play money 90% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1003.97692245, play 509517.50310836 Bettors: real 43, play 1224 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 50% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6897.08675617, play 1079029.54817806 Bettors: real 105, play 1883 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 97% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 95% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2033.0296517, play 337841.92892331 Bettors: real 45, play 554 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 3% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 75%

Will Lula's next nominee to Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) be a woman?

Market Rules

SUMMARY

This market counts only formal nominations made between November 5, 2026, 16:00 UTC and January 4, 2031, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT), the eve of the scheduled end of his fourth presidential term. It resolves "Yes" if the first person President Lula formally nominates for an STF seat in that period is a woman, and "No" if that person is a man or if no formal nomination happens.

FULL DETAILS

If the first person formally nominated by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the office of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) between November 5, 2026, 16:00 UTC and January 4, 2031, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT), the eve of the scheduled end of his fourth presidential term is a woman, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A nomination is formal when the Presidency of the Republic sends the nomination message (Mensagem) to the Federal Senate or announces the nomination in an official note or statement of the Presidency, whichever comes first; interviews, reported intentions and press leaks do not count. Only formal nominations made between November 5, 2026, 16:00 UTC and January 4, 2031, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT), the eve of the scheduled end of his fourth presidential term count; nominations made before November 5, 2026, 16:00 UTC are not taken into account, including the nomination of Jorge Messias rejected by the Federal Senate on April 29, 2026. The Primary Designated Source is the official communications of the Presidency of the Republic (gov.br/planalto) and the Federal Senate's record of the nomination message (senado.leg.br).

Nominations for any STF seat count. Only nominations made while Lula holds the office of President count; if he ceases to hold it before the end of the period, the period ends on that date. Only the first formal nomination in the period counts: the Senate's later vote, a withdrawal of the nomination or any subsequent nomination does not affect resolution, and resolution is final once the first formal nomination occurs. If no formal nomination occurs in the period, this market will resolve to "No". The result may be confirmed by consistent reporting from at least two of Agência Brasil, Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and O Estado de S. Paulo.

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