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Will Lula nominate at least one woman to Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) during his 4th term? Yes: real money 60%, play money 60% No: real money 40%, play money 40% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1003.97692245, play 509517.50310836 Bettors: real 43, play 1224 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 50% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6897.08675617, play 1079029.54817806 Bettors: real 105, play 1883 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 97% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 95% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2033.0296517, play 337841.92892331 Bettors: real 45, play 554 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 3% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 75%

Will Lula nominate at least one woman to Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) during his 4th term?

Market Rules

SUMMARY

This market counts only formal nominations made between the start of Lula's fourth presidential term (inauguration scheduled for January 5, 2027) and January 4, 2031, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT). It resolves "Yes" as soon as President Lula formally nominates a woman for any STF seat in that period, and "No" if he does not.

FULL DETAILS

If President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally nominates at least one woman for the office of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) between the start of Lula's fourth presidential term (inauguration scheduled for January 5, 2027) and January 4, 2031, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT), this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A nomination is formal when the Presidency of the Republic sends the nomination message (Mensagem) to the Federal Senate or announces the nomination in an official note or statement of the Presidency, whichever comes first; interviews, reported intentions and press leaks do not count. Nominations made before the start of the fourth term, including any made before January 5, 2027, are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is the official communications of the Presidency of the Republic (gov.br/planalto) and the Federal Senate's record of the nomination message (senado.leg.br).

If the inauguration takes place on a different date, the period starts on the date Lula actually takes office for his fourth term; if he does not take office, this market will resolve to "No". Only nominations made while Lula holds the office of President count; if he ceases to hold it before the end of the period, the period ends on that date. Nominations for any STF seat count, and the nomination counts even if it is later withdrawn or rejected by the Senate. Once a woman is formally nominated in the period, resolution is final and irrevocable. The result may be confirmed by consistent reporting from at least two of Agência Brasil, Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and O Estado de S. Paulo.

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