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Supervolcano erupt by the end of 2024? No: real money 91%, play money 97% Yes: real money 9%, play money 3% Volume: real money 833.0705718, play money 24341.65102665 Bettors: real money 16, play money 72 Categories: Science, Global Catastrophes Related markets New pandemic by the end of ____? (ID: 239828) Volume: real 111.43299217, play 26665.84078315 Bettors: real 5, play 10 Leading (real money): 2027 8% Leading (play money): 2027 13% Major earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026? (ID: 209025) Volume: real 43.15082731, play 27363.79009195 Bettors: real 7, play 24 Leading (real money): Major earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): Major earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026? 100% New confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by ...? (ID: 248115) Volume: real 7.37958754, play 2089.86963947 Bettors: real 2, play 2 Leading (real money): October 31 6% Leading (play money): October 31 5%

Supervolcano erupt by the end of 2024?

Market Rules

A supervolcano is a volcano that produces the largest and most massive types of eruptions on Earth and has the potential to generate global catastrophes and mass extinctions. They erupt after the accumulation of large amounts of magma and release ashes and toxic fumes capable of inducing a volcanic winter, which is the reduction in temperature on earth due to blocking the sun's rays.

There are about 20 supervolcanoes in the world such as Yellowstone (USA), Lake Taupo (New Zealand) and Lake Toba (Indonesia). In the past, eruptions occurred every 100,000 years on average. The last eruption occurred 640,000 years ago, but the geological conditions are favorable because the interior of the earth is cooling.

If by December 31st, 2024, any supervolcano erupts, the outcome that contains the year in which the eruption happened will be considered the winning outcome of this market. If no eruption takes place by that date, this market will be resolved as "No, not before 2025".

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  • djsiao71: Futuur#79204 An eruption can be tiny release of gas. "Eruption" should be defined better here.
  • everysteve: Does this market resolve as 'yes' if there is any eruption at a supervolcano or only supervolcanic eruptions? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano#Massive_explosive_eruptions Point of interest. Mount Aso in Japan is often called by the media as a supervolcano (and listed in category: supervolcanos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Supervolcanoes ) has had its alert level raised recently.
  • Futuur: Thanks for your question, everysteve . Any eruption at a known supervolcano will lead to a "Yes" resolution, even if that is not a supereruption. Also, if any supereruption does indeed take place anywhere in the world before 2025, the market will also resolve to "Yes" regardless of where it happened. After all, any volcano that undergoes a supereruption will have immediately become a supervolcano, therefore satisfying the criteria of this market's "Yes" resolution.

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