Will Russia annex any part of the Norwegian territory by the end of 2021?
Market Rules
Some boundaries between states in the region of the Baltic Sea are defined by relatively recent treaties and were subject to many and traumatic geopolitical shifts. In 2014, for example, Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea.
The last border settlement between Russia and Norway is very recent, and both countries share the strategic region of the Kola Peninsula. Norway's most recent defense plan, for the period of 2020-2024, states that the country faces a serious national security situation and that Russian military behavior is increasingly assertive.
Despite the end of the Cold War, the Russian Federation still has significant political, social, and economic influence over the Baltic states, and frequently holds big military drills in the region from time to time. Might that situation lead to a new Russian territorial claim over Norwegian territory?
If Russia claims authority over any portion of the Norwegian territory, and deploys military forces over the referred area by December 31st, 2021, this question will be resolved as "Yes".