What will be the popular vote margin between the two most voted candidates in the US presidential election of 2020?

Despite the fact that the president of the United States is determined according the Electoral College vote, the Federal Election Commission also issues data about how the popular vote was split between candidates nationwide. This forecast will be resolved based on that data in regard to the 2020 US presidential election.

The winning outcome in this forecast will be the one whose range contains the final difference in percentage points between the candidate who received the largest percentage of the popular vote and that of the candidate who received the second largest percentage of the popular vote.

Futuur may decide to resolve this question at any point after November 4th, 2020, when it considers the official election results, concession speeches and eventual legal actions taken by parties have finally made clear which presidential candidate received the largest portion of the popular vote, and the difference between his/her portion that that of the runner-up. If any ambiguity is raised concerning the final amount of votes, Futuur might decide at its own discretion between reopening this forecast after the November elections, or keeping it closed until the eventual doubts surrounding such results are settled.