Will Joe Biden win the Democratic nomination to run for re-election in 2024?

Market Rules

Comments

• alexej_gerstmaier: nicolas_sauveur#205337 I keep telling all people I know to NEVER use futuur
• nicolas_sauveur: For sake of clarity, as of October 18 2024, Futuur maintains its decision that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate and has ignored support requests to fix this. Essentially choosing to screw a few users silently rather that going through the pain of reverting their decision.
• alexej_gerstmaier: nicolas_sauveur#199537 The Futuur team should focus on building the platform, not making predictions themselves. (resolving this market prematurely was basically a prediction by Futuur) In all my years of prediction market adventures, I've NEVER encountered such premature resolution ANYWHERE else. I lost my inheritance and bet my mortgage on this - now I'm eating ramen in a cardboard box. I've shared my thoughts on this issue on X/Twitter: https://x.com/AlexejGerst/status/1827112213254910032
• nicolas_sauveur: This market has now been resolved by facts. Kamala is the Democratic nominee. Anyone cares for making this prediction market not a joke because of incompetence ?
• nicolas_sauveur: Futuur, are you seriously maintaining that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election ?
• alexej_gerstmaier: Really frustrating that Futuur arbitrarily resolved this market. Will think twice before trading here again  😢
• nicolas_sauveur: Futuur#192220 The Rules of this market is : " If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic candidate for the presidential election of 2024 in the United States this market will be resolved as "Yes". Somehow you are trying to defend the idea that if Biden ends up not being the nominee of the Democratic party, it should also be resolved as "Yes". When you have a market with so much potential for surprises until the last minute, and you want to avoid late bets, you should freeze the market, not resolve it early.
• nicolas_sauveur: I expect you to reopen this
• Futuur: Hello,  nicolas_sauveur . The rules of the market are clear when it comes to the moment it can be resolved: "Futuur may decide to resolve this question at any point in 2024, even before the Democratic National Convention, if it considers that the Democratic Primaries and Caucuses have already made clear who is the upcoming Democratic nominee for the US presidential election." The rules were written like that to guarantee that once any candidate reached the needed number of delegates to receive the nomination, the market could be resolved and the payouts could be made without forcing forecasters to unnecessarily wait for several months. In March, Biden surpassed the needed number of delegates, so we resolved the market as "Yes" following the rules. It is important to remember that the window to contest a market resolution is restricted to a few days after it is first resolved. No user had ever questioned it in March, nor the following months, until now, nearly 4 months later. It is unfortunately too late for that, as the legal uncertainty such a late reversal would cause far outweigh its alleged benefits. We are not blind to the fact that now there is a reasonable chance that Democrats will change their choice of nominee, though. Because of that, we created a new market asking  whether or not Biden will drop out of the race , despite having effectively earned the right to receive the nomination based on his performance at the primaries. This way the likelihood of this event can still be predicted by our users, without the need to reverse a market that was effectively resolved by the rules. We hope this explanation clears things up for you, and we look forward to your predictions in the election markets that are still open 🙂