Will Brazil and Pfizer/BioNTech sign a buying deal for Covid-19 vaccine doses?
Market Rules
On November 18th, 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that they had concluded the analysis of data from the phase III clinical trial of their mRNA vaccine against COVID-19, and found that the vaccine was 95% effective. This caused great excitement around the globe, as it might put the world closer to an actual vaccine.
At the time of the announcement, Brazil had not yet signed any contract to ensure the purchase of vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech.
If by March 31, 2021, Brazil signs a Covid-19 vaccine buying deal with Pfizer/BioNTech - be it through actions taken by the federal government or by the administration of any of its local State governments -, this market will be resolved as "Yes". The deal does not translate immediately in a purchase order, but it does need to explicitly state that if the vaccine is approved by the relevant health authorities Brazil would have the right to purchase a certain amount of doses and have that request fulfilled by Pfizer/BioNTech.