Will Lula remain eligible until the 2022 elections?
Market Rules
In early March 2021, Brazil's Supreme Court justice Edson Fachin annulled all the condemnations imposed by the Federal Justice of Paraná on former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in "Operation Car Wash". The lawsuits against Lula were then handed over to the federal judicial section of Distrito Federal for re-analysis.
With the decision, Lula recovered his political rights and became eligible again, and many have since speculated on the possibility of the former president might run for president once more. If he is found guilty after the re-analysis, however, he might still lose his political rights for a second time.
If by the deadline for evaluating if candidates meet the legal criteria to run in the 2022 Brazilian elections, for any reason, former President Lula loses political rights and is hence disqualified from running for president, this market will be resolved as "No".