Will Jair Bolsonaro declare a "state of siege" in Brazil by the end of June 2021?
Market Rules
In March 2021, the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, compared the lockdown measures put in effect by local governors in the fight against Covid-19 to what he considers to be a "state of siege", a kind of situation that only he would have the authority to declare.
Following those statements, Bolsonaro filed a request for Brazil's Supreme Court to evaluate whether the state-level lockdowns were constitutional or not. The move was perceived by many as a warning that the president might want to soon declare a state of siege himself.
If President Jair Bolsonaro declares a national State of Siege in Brazil by June 30th, 2021, this market will be resolved as "Yes", regardless of whether Congress approves the delcaration or rejects it.