Will Russia take Kiev by force by the end of 2022?
Market Rules
The Russian military deployment on the Ukrainian border that started in 2021 has created political tensions with countries members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Russian perception of strategic importance and political and cultural bonds in former Soviet republics is especially remarkable in the case of Ukraine, which not only is a neighboring country but also had an important role in the territorial and political formation of Russian since the inception of Slavic settlements some centuries ago.
In case Russian armed forces take Kiev through military means by December 31, 2022, then the outcome of this market will be “Yes”.
Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Ukrainian territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Ukrainian territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed.
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Comments
- hugotss: This market was modified, wasn't? It was about trying to, not exactly achieving it.
- Futuur: Hello hugotss . Looking at our records, we believe this market has always been about actually taking Kiev, not just attempting to. Perhaps you are thinking of the market about China using military force to try to take Taiwan, right? https://futuur.com/q/133863/will-china-use-military-force-to-try-to-take-taiwan-by-the-end-of-2026 In that case, yes, the market will resolve to "Yes" after the first attempt, regardless of whether or not China succeeds. When it comes to Ukraine, though, the market will only resolve to "Yes" if Russia does effectively take control of Kiev by force.