If Bolsonaro gets reelected, will Petrobras be made private by the end of the term?
Market Rules
On May 30th, 2022, Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister Adolfo Sachsida formally requested the Ministry of Economy to include Petrobras in a list of studies for privatization. The eventual studies’ conclusion of the necessity and feasibility of making Petrobras private would lead to a consultation of the president of the Republic in order to include the company in the National Destatization Program.
This market will resolve in favor of one of the listed alternatives only if the following condition is met:
- Jair Messias Bolsonaro is reelected President of Brazil in the 2022 elections and takes office to serve his term starting in 2023.
If that condition is not met, this market will be canceled and all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.
If the condition above is met, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Petrobrás is included in the National Destatization Program between the beginning of Jair Bolsonaro's second term (in January 2023) and the day he permanently leaves office (regardless of whether that happens at the scheduled end of his full term in January 2027 or sooner for any reason).
If the National Destatization Program gets extinguished or substituted by an equivalent governmental mechanism, Futuur’s staff will reserve itself the right to evaluate to what extent that condition is met. If none of the market’s conditions are met, this market will be canceled and all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.