Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023?
Market Rules
The Russian military operation in Ukraine started in February 2022 and has since developed on multiple fronts. On top of Eastern Ukraine, Russian armed forces have also marked positions in Crimea, in the South, and have been active through the Southeastern territory in cities like Mariupol.
If on December 31st, 2023, Ukraine controls the territory of Luhansk, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market may also resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31st, 2023, Russia and Ukraine formally and consensually recognize (“de jure”) that the referred territory belongs to Ukraine. In that case, this market will be resolved as soon as the agreement becomes public.
To assess this information, the Institute for the Study of War's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment will be used as a reference.