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Will Joe Manchin switch party affiliation for the 2024 elections? No: real money 90%, play money 92% Yes: real money 10%, play money 8% Volume: real money 264.23024141, play money 5700 Bettors: real money 6, play money 7 Categories: Politics, USA, 2024 Elections, Presidency, Primaries, Democratic Primaries

Will Joe Manchin switch party affiliation for the 2024 elections?

Market Rules

If Joe Manchin announces he will switch party affiliation — to any party other than the Democratic Party — to take part in the general elections of 2024 this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Joe Manchin does not need to win any of the primaries of his new party for this market to resolve to "Yes". Announcing the change in party affiliation and confirming his participation in the electoral process is sufficient for that.