Will Russia and Ukraine sign another Black Sea grain deal by the end of 2023?
Market Rules
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was terminated on July 18th, 2023. This deal among Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations had been closed on July 22nd, 2022, to facilitate Ukrainian and Russian grain exports through the Black Sea in the context of war. Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat suppliers, with crops taking place mostly in July and August, and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization estimates a price decrease of 23% in international grain prices since the beginning of the deal.
After extending its deadline three times, Russia claimed the deal’s conditions had not been completely met and suspended its participation.
If a new deal to facilitate grain exports in routes that go through the Black Sea is closed by December 31st, 2023 — taking at least Russia and Ukraine as contracting parts — this market will resolve to “Yes”.