Will Hamas control Gaza through the end of March of 2024?
Market Rules
Israel declared war on Hamas in response to the murder of civilians promoted by this group on October 7th, 2023. The goal of the unprecedented military operation in the Gaza Strip, of eliminating Hamas, requires overcoming obstacles of various types, including the complexity of the urban combat, a net of subterranean tunnels, and the international political pressure to preserve the lives of Palestinian civilians in the conflict.
If Hamas still exerts de facto control over the Gaza Strip through March 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The outcome of this market will be determined based on official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or international bodies such as the United Nations, as well as media reports from mediatic, political, and scholarly sources that Futuur deems credible. If there are conflicting reports or a lack of clear, verifiable information, Futuur will decide between resolving the market in favor of the most credible report or canceling the market, in which case all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.
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Comments
- sparkman_dan: Futuur#184999 Thank you for your reply. While I disagree with you, I think the IDF is closer to having defacto control than Hamas, your decision is consistent and predictable. It will help me make these kinds of judgments going forward.
- sparkman_dan: Can you explain your reasoning? Not trying to argue. But I have spent more time trying to guess how you would decide than trying to figure out what would happen. An understanding of your reasoning would help for future questions.
- Futuur: Hello, sparkman_dan . Given the complexity of the situation in Gaza, there is no fixed set of parameters that need to be checked and ranked to meticulously determine which authority exerts control over its territory. The situation needs to be assessed each time a market arrives at its expiration date. However, the basic principle behind this determination is that there is no vacuum of power in politics. We cannot say someone has stopped controlling a region unless someone else effectively claims and demonstrates to have overtaken control of that very region. Given the current situation in the region, despite Israeli advancements and the progressively more precarious infrastructure in Gaza, there is still no other authority that has managed to undoubtedly overtake Hamas' control over the territory at stake, nor has anyone claimed to do so. The market was resolved as "Yes" on the light of that.
- sparkman_dan: {"ops":[{"insert":"Could you provide some clarity around resolution? \n\nIf you had to resolve this question today. Feb 16 would you resolve yes, no, or unclear? \n"}]}
- Futuur: sparkman_dan To the best of our knowledge, as far as we are informed today (February 19th), the market would resolve to Yes. But that decision will only be taken at the moment of resolving the market, after careful consideration and analysis of the most reliable sources of information available at the time.