Serbian military attack on Kosovo in 2024?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict if Serbia will attack Kosovo by the end of 2024. If Serbian official armed forces exert kinetic military action within the borders of Kosovo's territory by December 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The armed assault of a Serbian group to the Kosovar village of Bajnska on September 24th, 2023, was followed by Kosovo's prime minister Albin Kurti's assertion that Serbia would have planned and ordered an onslaught to destabilize the country, provoke a war, and annex territory to set up a logistical corridor. At the occasion, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) urged both parties to negotiate a peaceful solution to this episode of ethnic violence, the direst in years of growing tension.
Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Kosovo's territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Kosovar territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.