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Trump to serve his full term? Yes: real money 50%, play money 71% No: real money 50%, play money 29% Volume: real money 2422.49475017, play money 113871.83467419 Bettors: real money 34, play money 205 Categories: Politics, USA, White House Related markets Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 2962.18003222, play 136707.61608244 Bettors: real 26, play 206 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 50% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Brazil’s Next President Elect (ID: 233774) Volume: real 2666.17861997, play 452427.9782 Bettors: real 73, play 117 Leading (real money): Lula 51% Leading (play money): Lula 75% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1442.06982122, play 78179.99024344 Bettors: real 9, play 108 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 73%

Trump to serve his full term?

Market Rules

If the winning candidate of the 2024 presidential election in the United States of America serves the full regular 4-year term in office, this market will resolve to "Yes". The regular term of this president ranges from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.

Temporary leaves for health purposes or official appointments will not qualify as term interruptions. Only the definitive interruption of the term will be considered sufficient as a criterion to resolve this market to “No”.

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Comments

  • sparkman_dan: How does this resolve if he dies in office.  In the past you have said markets like this were canceled in the event of death.
  • Futuur: Thank you for your question, @sparkman_dan. As we explained in the past, Futuur cannot provide incentives for people to profit from causing harm to others. Therefore, if an assassination attempt was connected in any way to the possibility of earning profits from this prediction market, the market would be immediately canceled. In the case of death by natural causes, however, we presume the event triggering the market resolution was entirely independent of the market dynamic. The resolution in that case, in principle, would be held.

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