Will Lula's approval be net positive in the next Datafolha survey?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether, in the approval poll of Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s government immediately following the April 5, 2025 edition (“Evaluation of two years and four months of President Lula”), the approval rating will exceed the disapproval rating. If that happens, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
For the purposes of this market, “Regular” responses are considered neutral toward the approval balance; “Great/Good” evaluations count positively toward the approval balance, while “Poor/Terrible” evaluations count negatively toward Lula’s standing in the poll.
The approval balance is considered positive if the percentage of “Great/Good” evaluations is higher than the percentage of “Poor/Terrible” ones. If the approval balance is negative or there is a tie, the market will resolve to “No.”
This market will be resolved according to the results of the next Datafolha poll on President Lula’s government approval rating, and secondary sources referencing that publication directly may also be used.