Will Brazil's Senate approve PEC 12/2022 (ending reelection for all executive offices) in 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether Brazil's Constitutional Amendment Proposition 12/2022 (PEC 12/2022) will be approved by the Federal Senate on or before December 31, 2025. This PEC proposes significant changes to Brazil's electoral system, including ending the possibility of reelection for elective executive offices (President, Governors, and Mayors), extending mandates from 4 to 5 years, and unifying federal, state, and municipal elections to occur simultaneously every 5 years.
The market will resolve to "Yes" if all of the following conditions are met:
- PEC 12/2022 must be approved by Brazil's Federal Senate in both required voting rounds with the necessary constitutional majority (3/5 of senators in each round).
- The approval must occur on or before December 31, 2025.
- The approved text must include the provision ending consecutive reelection for executive offices (President, Governors, and Mayors).
Changes to other provisions (mandate length, election timing) do not affect the resolution as long as the anti-reelection provision remains intact.
If the provision ending reelection for all elective executive offices is removed or substantially modified (such as ending reelection only for Mayors but not for Governors or Presidents) during the legislative process, the market resolves as "No".
If the Senate's end-of-year recess begins before the PEC is voted in two rounds, the market will resolve to "No" at the beginning of the parliamentary recess, with no need to wait until the end of the year.
This market will be resolved based on official records from the Brazilian Federal Senate, confirmed reporting from credible Brazilian news outlets, and official documentation of the legislative process for PEC 12/2022.