How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2025?
Market Rules
This market will resolve based on how many individuals from the group referred to as "Núcleo 1" ("Core #1")—as defined by the rulings of the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) of Brazil regarding the 8 January 2023 coup attempt—will officially lose their military ranks by December 31, 2025, 23:59:59 UTC. The list of convicted individuals from that group includes:
- Jair Messias Bolsonaro
- Almir Garnier
- Augusto Heleno
- Mauro Cid
- Paulo Sérgio Nogueira
- Walter Souza Braga Netto
Primary Designated Source (PDS): official announcements, rulings, or public releases by the Supremo Tribunal Militar (STM) and/or Brazil's Ministry of Defense confirming the definitive loss of military rank for these individuals. If an individual has their rank stripped during this Market Period, this market will count that person in the total.
Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): if official STM or Ministry announcements are unavailable or ambiguous, Futuur may rely on reliable news organizations chosen at its sole discretion to verify the number. Resolution will be based on the substantive outcome (the number of individuals who actually lose rank) rather than minor technicalities. If no clear determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, the market may be cancelled.