United States to attack North Korea in 2026?

This event predicts whether the United States will carry out an official kinetic military attack within the territory of North Korea at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, an attack means kinetic action by U.S. air, naval, marine, or ground forces within North Korean territory, acknowledged as a U.S. operation. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements or readouts from the U.S. government confirming such action.

If the U.S. government officially confirms that U.S. forces conducted kinetic military action within North Korean territory during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Cyber operations, sanctions, deployments, exercises, or non-kinetic actions will not count. If official confirmation is unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations describing an acknowledged U.S. attack. Resolution will reflect the substantive occurrence of an official kinetic attack, not heightened tensions. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.