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How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026? 0: real money 60%, play money 55% 1 or 2: real money 10%, play money 18% 3 or 4: real money 12%, play money 27% 5 or 6: real money 18%, play money 1% Volume: real money 470.46473775, play money 28900.2963 Bettors: real money 25, play money 14 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 1968.12791744, play 280799.46939625 Bettors: real 43, play 551 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 10% Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? (ID: 161038) Volume: real 124.1569683, play 166490.64881065 Bettors: real 22, play 267 Leading (real money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 2%

How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts how many individuals from the group known as “Núcleo 1” (“Core #1”), as defined by rulings of Brazil’s Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) regarding the 8 January 2023 coup attempt, will officially lose their military ranks during 2026, up to December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. The individuals considered for this count are: Jair Messias Bolsonaro, Almir Garnier, Augusto Heleno, Mauro Cid, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, and Walter Souza Braga Netto.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official announcements, rulings, or public releases by the Supremo Tribunal Militar (STM) and/or Brazil’s Ministry of Defense confirming the definitive loss of military rank. If such official sources are unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by reliable news organizations selected by Futuur. These markets will be resolved based on the substantive outcome—the number of individuals who in fact lose their military rank—rather than minor technicalities of wording or procedure. If no fair and definitive determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.

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