How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts how many individuals from the group known as “Núcleo 1” (“Core #1”), as defined by rulings of Brazil’s Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) regarding the 8 January 2023 coup attempt, will officially lose their military ranks during 2026, up to December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. The individuals considered for this count are: Jair Messias Bolsonaro, Almir Garnier, Augusto Heleno, Mauro Cid, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, and Walter Souza Braga Netto.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official announcements, rulings, or public releases by the Supremo Tribunal Militar (STM) and/or Brazil’s Ministry of Defense confirming the definitive loss of military rank. If such official sources are unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by reliable news organizations selected by Futuur. These markets will be resolved based on the substantive outcome—the number of individuals who in fact lose their military rank—rather than minor technicalities of wording or procedure. If no fair and definitive determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.