Brazilian Senate seat winners for São Paulo in 2026
Market Rules
This event predicts which candidates will be elected to the Federal Senate of Brazil representing the state of São Paulo in the next general election, scheduled for October 4, 2026.
In this election, São Paulo will elect two Senators. The markets corresponding to the candidates who win the two highest numbers of valid votes will resolve to "Yes". The winners are determined under Brazil’s plurality voting system.
These markets may resolve before official certification once the outcome is clearly determined and no longer subject to reasonable doubt, based on substantially complete vote counts published by the Brazilian electoral authority. Final certification is not required if the leading candidates cannot realistically be overtaken.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official vote counts published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral – TSE). If official data is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus of major reputable news organizations reporting the same winners based on official results. Resolution will be based on the substantive election outcome, not the formal timing of certification. If the outcome becomes uncertain due to recounts, legal challenges, or other developments, resolution may be delayed. If a fair determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.