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Will Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027? Yes: real money 35%, play money 35% No: real money 65%, play money 65% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Politics, Brazil, 2026 Election Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 965.16141894, play 508517.50310836 Bettors: real 43, play 1223 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 51% Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? (ID: 156870) Volume: real 1159.60025846, play 243281.48116915 Bettors: real 28, play 407 Leading (real money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 2% Leading (play money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 100% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6779.44719473, play 1075860.94599143 Bettors: real 103, play 1882 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 97% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 96% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2033.0296517, play 299498.80666806 Bettors: real 45, play 553 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 3% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 2%

Will Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?

Market Rules

SUMMARY

This market counts only releases between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time. It resolves "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is released from every form of imprisonment, including his current house arrest, per the STF's official decisions — even if he is later returned to custody.

FULL DETAILS

If, at any time between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time (February 1, 2027, 02:59 UTC), Jair Messias Bolsonaro ceases to be subject to any form of imprisonment (prisão) — including serving his sentence in a closed, semi-open or open regime, house arrest (prisão domiciliar, such as the humanitarian house arrest in force when this market was drafted) or pretrial detention — this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Releases or changes in custody recorded before October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC are not taken into account, even if the condition was met at an earlier date. The Primary Designated Source is the official decisions of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the execution of his sentence, published on portal.stf.jus.br.

Moves between forms of imprisonment do not count — for example, a return to a prison facility, a transfer to a hospital under custody, a temporary leave, or a progression to the semi-open or open regime. Release on parole (livramento condicional), or with only non-custodial measures (such as an ankle monitor, travel bans or other medidas cautelares diversas da prisão), counts as leaving prison. A pardon, amnesty, annulment or sentence reduction counts only once it takes effect through his release from all forms of imprisonment within the window; the moment the release takes effect governs. If Bolsonaro dies before the condition is met, this market will resolve to "No". The date and nature of a release may be confirmed by consistent reporting from at least two of Agência Brasil, Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and O Estado de S. Paulo. Once the condition is first met, resolution is final and irrevocable, even if he is later returned to custody.

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