Will the US impose restrictions on its officials to relate with Taiwan by the end of 2023?
Market Rules
Since 1994, the US has codified contact guidelines to relate with Taiwan. Despite the US having cut official ties with Taiwan in 1979, such rules determined how the unofficial relationship could be conducted, while the US still maintained official relations with China. These guidelines included self-imposed restrictions to US officials, like travel restrictions to diplomats and service members, which should be reassessed according to 2020's Taiwan Assurance Act.
On January 9th, 2021, former State Secretary Mike Pompeo announced the US would lift these self-imposed contact restrictions, considering them 'null and void', to the awe of Chinese authorities. Mainland China officials regarded such a move as a breach of the "One China” policy.
If by December 31st, 2023, the US enacts new codified restrictions to guide relations between the US and Taiwan, or if the State Department reverts its nullification of the previous guidelines, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.