Will AstraZeneca successfully update its Covid-19 vaccine formulation to combat the new South African variant of SARS-COV-2 by the end of 2021?
Market Rules
In March 2021, scientists identified that the B.1.351 - a variant of SARS-COV-2 that was first identified in South Africa - can escape the immunity caused by the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine. AstraZeneca itself took part in the study that concluded that the immunizing agent is only 10% effective against this new variant, in comparison to the previously-proven efficacy of up to 70% against the original coronavirus strain.
If by December 31, 2021, the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca updates its vaccine formulation so that it is effective against the South African variant, and publishes a study proving that the new formulation is at least 50% effective in preventing infections by the B.1.351 variant, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
Only the studies that are considered credible and reputable by the scientific community - and have been published by December 31, 2021 - will be taken into account for resolving this market.