Will Ukraine concede formal autonomy to the Donbas region by the end of 2022?
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The Russian deployment of more than 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border in April of 2021 raised local and international concerns of military assault against Ukraine. The move comes in the context of unsolved consequences of Russia’s annexation of Crimea (2014) and sponsoring local separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces).
The Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts form the Donbas region of Ukraine, which was still in conflict with the Union government at the time this market was published. One of the conditions discussed in the latest peace dialog was granting Donbas more autonomy. Changing the Donbas oblasts’ status in the Constitution from oblasts to autonomous republics might be a way to do it, though the Ukrainian government presently opposes this procedure, in order not to legitimate and strengthen Russian proxies in the region.
If the Constitution of Ukraine gets changed by December 31st, 2022, to include either the Donbas region as an autonomous republic or the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as autonomous republics, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.