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Will the Dear Moon project take place in 2023? No: real money 87%, play money 96% Yes: real money 13%, play money 4% Volume: real money 506.90739326, play money 6556.81 Bettors: real money 9, play money 16 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Moon, Dear Moon Mission Related markets Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026? (ID: 239436) Volume: real 202.33539333, play 14939.83872824 Bettors: real 7, play 12 Leading (real money): Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026? 16% Leading (play money): Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026? 25% Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028? (ID: 112737) Volume: real 197.11744481, play 5646.21362042 Bettors: real 11, play 36 Leading (real money): Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 202 70% Leading (play money): Russian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 202 3% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 798.20311148, play 68327.52697574 Bettors: real 21, play 91 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 100%

Will the Dear Moon project take place in 2023?

Market Rules

Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa is selecting 8 people to accompany him on a trip around the Moon, in the so-called Dear Moon project. The mission, which was planned to be carried out in 2023, will be the first to take civilians to the Moon's orbit and should be carried out with help from the Starship, a spacecraft developed by SpaceX (the American aerospace company founded by Elon Musk).

If the Dear Moon mission is effectively launched by the end of 2023, this market will be resolved as “Yes”, regardless of how successfull is the return of the crew to Earth after the spaceship is launched and leaves Earth's Atmosphere.

Comments

  • mxo: Source for postponement (apart from it clearly not having happened): https://dearmoon.earth/pdf/dearMoon_EN_231109.pdf
  • mxo: @Futuur I think this got resolved incorrectly (to Yes), since the mission was clearly not launched. Can you please check again?
  • Futuur: You are correct, mxo . We had incorrectly resolved the market as "Yes" by mistake, but that resolution was quickly reversed to the correct one, making the "No" the winning outcome. You were even faster in noticing the temporary mistake, so we thank you for pointing that out 🙂

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