What will be the number of ministries at the inauguration of Brazil's next federal administration?
Market Rules
Before being elected President of Brazil in 2018, Jair Bolsonato promised to streamline the structure of the federal government, alleging he would govern with a maximum of 15 cabinet positions. Bolsonaro hasn't delivered on that promise yet, and the ministerial reform that took place in July 2021 left his administration with 8 cabinet positions above the promised figure, totaling 23.
On the face of that, that issue might become central to the electoral debate in 2022, both for government supporters and for the opposition.
The winning outcome in this market will be the one that contains the total number of cabinet positions (including ministries, secretariats, and positions with ministerial status) at the beginning of the next federal administration to take office in Brazil, as indicated at the end of the its inauguration. It is irrelevant for this market if that administration comes via a second term of the current government, the first term of the candidate who wins the next elections, or any other legal path.