Will the US recognize the new Afghan government as legit by the end of 2021?
Market Rules
The departure of the US military mission from Afghanistan end in August, following the country's takeover by the Taliban. In the face of that, the US has announced it would begin a "new diplomatic mission" in Afghanistan, one that would be led by diplomatic efforts instead of military actions.
Amid the first measures of this new phase, the moving of the US Embassy from Kabul to Doha, in Qatar, was the most noticeable. An intelligence collaboration between the US and the Taliban against the Islamic State-Khorasan was also worth noting. But the formal recognition of the legitimacy of the new Afgan government is still to occur.
If the US government releases an official communication, either through a spokesperson or a document, that recognizes the legitimacy of the new Afghan government by December 31, 2021, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.